4 quick insights from the Corbyn List

1. Just look at the scale of Corbyn’s party management problem

It’s news to no-one that Jeremy Corbyn is not exactly the most popular Labour leader, but let’s just take a marvel at quite how bad the situation is. A mere 7 months after the Labour leadership election, and using a list that is definitely on the more optimistic side of reality, Team Corbyn considers that just 32% of Labour MPs are actually supportive of him, and a higher number – 36% – are actively hostile to him. Even within the shadow cabinet a full third of MPs are opposed to Corbyn, including the Chief Whip. It’s hard to think of any other leader who has gotten off to a worse start, and it’s hard to see how Corbyn can make it to the next election with these numbers.

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2. Labour MPs who actually know how government works are much more hostile to Corbyn

There’s still a substantial caucus of Labour MPs who have at some point actually held ministerial office and know what you have to do to run a country. A full 54% of these MPs are hostile to Jeremy Corbyn, against just 13% who are supportive – hardly a keen endorsement of Labour’s capacity to put their policies into workable practice. Those who, like Corbyn himself, have only ever languished on the back benches, are much more positive as a group about their leader.

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3. Ed Miliband opened the door to Generation Corbyn

The tranche of MPs elected in 2015 is the only one that is more supportive of Corbyn than hostile. I think coming into Parliament on Ed Miliband’s ticket, coupled with the lack of electoral success in 2015, has resulted in a more left wing batch of new MPs than might otherwise have been expected, and Corbyn has been a beneficiary of this fact.

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4. Corbyn’s inner circle have the highest median majorities; his most vocal critics have the lowest

I tend to feel that a safe seat both encourages and allows an MP to indulge in their ideology, and that a marginal seat forces a more pragmatic approach. Just as we saw in the Labour leadership election itself, we can see that those who with the strongest support for Corbyn have safer seats on the whole than opponents.

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